I am hoping for color coding

Yesterday was the semi-monthly pickup day here for green waste so I raked up the usual pile of eucalyptus debris – bark, branches, leaves … – gifted by my neighbor to the west’s large tree.The sun was just rising – I am so used to nearly red versions of our formerly yellow star that I paid little heed. The air did seem a bit smokier than it had Monday, but there were traces of blue in the sky. I spent 15 to 20 minutes outdoors – maximum. It was early morning, so it was not especially hot and, alas, there was not much of a breeze.

I headed for a shower and glanced at a mirror. My face and exposed forearms were definitely pinker. Now that I noticed it, they were also tingling.

My problem is that I am not sure if the smoke is from the north (and, if so, the Glass fire or not) or from the south. Since it looks like part of the wine crop will not be making it to market I was thinking I could sell bottled smoke. For example, “Chateau Boswell 9/29 – a clean finish with overtones of brambleberry supplemented by a hint of wild mustard”. I was thinking maybe noted inlay artist Larry Robinson could design a logo of a dragon incinerating row crops. I have an air quality analyzer that is destined for the training area, but whether it is sophisticated enough to distinguish where smoke came from remains to be discovered.


This could be bigger than pet rocks. 

Fires, flu and the future – California

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Here are some estimates for November 1 2020 based on reported confirmed cases and confirmed deaths from July and August sorted by cases.

CountyCasesDeaths
California [state]1,204,48820,494
Los Angeles395,6928,765
Riverside85,8011,557
San Bernardino80,1831,185
Orange80,0771,574
San Diego66,4911,036
Kern48,067469
Fresno42,375476
Sacramento31,836503
Alameda31,198469
San Joaquin30,168549
Santa Clara29,373371
Stanislaus24,964442
Ventura23,931164
Tulare23,790354
Contra Costa23,321421
Imperial17,748435
San Francisco15,766124
Monterey14,03990
San Mateo13,858192
Santa Barbara13,582150
Merced13,423182
Kings11,100109
Sonoma10,222148
Marin9,982140

Similar estimates for key countries can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_actuals_October.html

Similar estimates for US states and territories can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_US_States_actuals_October.html

A similar estimate but a complete list (alphabetic by county name) for California can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_California_counties_actuals_October.html

The figures are very likely to be low, alas. I am currently NOT factoring in the effects of evacuations due to fires, individual respiratory system insults due to smoke, the interaction with influenza, changes to COVID-19 itself or the possibility of reinfection. In addition, long-term damage due to COVID-19 is unknown but suspected. Keep up the zinc, vitamin C and vitamin D!

Fires, flu and the future – Oregon

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Here are some estimates for November 1 2020 based on reported confirmed cases and confirmed deaths from July and August sorted by cases.

CountyCasesDeaths
Oregon [state]45,135703
Multnomah10,045174
Marion6,510120
Washington6,31878
Umatilla4,32655
Clackamas3,30282
Malheur2,20731
Jackson1,5124
Lane1,37119
Deschutes1,11016

Similar estimates for key countries can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_actuals_October.html

Similar estimates for US states and territories can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_US_States_actuals_October.html

A similar estimate but a complete list (alphabetic by county name) for Oregon can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_Oregon_counties_actuals_October.html

The figures are very likely to be low, alas. I am currently NOT factoring in the effects of evacuations due to fires, individual respiratory system insults due to smoke, the interaction with influenza, changes to COVID-19 itself or the possibility of reinfection. In addition, long-term damage due to COVID-19 is unknown but suspected. Keep up the zinc, vitamin C and vitamin D!

Fires, flu and the future – Washington state

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Here are some estimates for November 1 2020 based on reported confirmed cases and confirmed deaths from July and August sorted by cases.

CountyCasesDeaths
Washington [state]117,7282,596
King33,238394
Yakima17,623344
Pierce11,670259
Snohomish10,397281
Spokane9,458202
Benton6,875171
Franklin6,51884
Grant4,25526
Clark3,95484
Chelan2,86819

Similar estimates for key countries can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_actuals_October.html

Similar estimates for US states and territories can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_US_States_actuals_October.html

A similar estimate but a complete list (alphabetic by county name) for Washington can be seen at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus_Washington_counties_actuals_October.html

The figures are very likely to be low, alas. I am currently NOT factoring in the effects of evacuations due to fires, individual respiratory system insults due to smoke, the interaction with influenza, changes to COVID-19 itself or the possibility of reinfection. In addition, long-term damage due to COVID-19 is unknown but suspected. Keep up the zinc, vitamin C and vitamin D!

Fires, flu and the future

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Three of the five United States Pacific Ocean states – California, Oregon and Washington – have had significant wildfires. That means the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (Sankattan Siha Na Islas Mariånas) , Guam, American Samoa, Hawaii and Alaska do NOT have to deal with smoke and evacuations. Currently, California has had almost four million acres burn – out of a total area of just over one hundred million acres. This is something of a ‘triple witch’ – the shade, oxygen addition and carbon dioxide reduction provided by trees is reduced; the air quality declines due to the smoke and people are somewhat randomly but intensively commingled due to evacuations and displacements. These are all advantages for the coronaviruses.

A second complication is that the so-called flu season is starting up. None (not one, zero) of the epidemiological gunslingers whose advice and guidance I sought had any quantitative estimates for how COVID-19 and the various influenzas of 2020 will interact. Everyone agreed it was an important problem and that this would be another advantage for the coronaviruses. Generally, in epidemiology one wants to studies epidemics that are raging in a country comfortably far away.

Currently, there are over 12,000 genetic variants of the COVID-19 virus. The vast majority have the same infectivity and do the same short-term damage. We will see what the long-term effects are – in the long term. The underlying problems here are that the longer the pandemic rolls along and the more people are infected the better the chances that the virus becomes more deadly. That is a major factor for both vaccine designers (and testers and makers) and for people hoping to avoid a reinfection.

So first a few estimates or predictions of confirmed COVID cases and deaths for California, Oregon and Washington at the county level.

Cofactors – South Africa

The population of South Africa is currently estimated to be about 56,500,000 so COVID-19 cases have passed one percent (1%) of the population. There have been concerns that the capacity of South Africa to gather, test and report on a daily basis limits the increase in confirmed cases. In addition, there are statistical concerns that the reported deaths are comparatively low by a factor of four or more.

Not all the news is bleak – South Africa does not have Ebola cases or deaths. And in 2018 there were only 9540 malaria cases (per WHO) and 69 malaria-related deaths.

Maternal mortality rate is given as 1.19/1,000, while infant mortality is 2.78 percent.

A major problem is that South Africa has an incidence of 22% of adults being HIV-positive with nearly 8 million people living with AIDS. This has a major impact on South Africa’s economy.

Of interest is whether South Africa, like many nations, will show increases in AIDS or COVID or both attributed to the individual getting both diseases.

Reasonably current charts for confirmed cases and deaths can be found at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus2020_charts_South_Africa.html

while breakouts by province can be found at

http://silverwolfwushu.com/Coronavirus2020_South_Africa_subcountries.html

One of the challenges with Texas

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There is always a problem in demography, and especially in epidemiology, when it comes to estimating a population for a city versus a metropolitan area. In the United States some cities, like New York City, for example, include all or part of more than one county. For COVID-19 at the moment one should expect to see comparatively high percentages of confirmed cases and deaths. Part of this is a statistical artifact – cities tend to have the most testing facilities. In the case of Texas, one should expect to find higher than the state-wide per capita rates in the following urban areas:

EntityPopulationcases%deaths%
Texas (whole state)28,995,881625,3472.1513,0910.0451
Houston2,099,45193,8724.472,0110.0958
San Antonio1,532,23344,4562.909920.0647
Dallas1,345,04766,0654.918780.0653
Austin964,25424,759 2.57329 0.0341
Fort Worth895,00824,460 2.733710.0415
El Paso682,66918,9142.773920.0574
Arlington398,12312,2303.071860.0467
Corpus Christi326,55413,9604.272370.0725
Plano288,06110,3793.601020.0354
Laredo261,6299,8573.771520.0581
Lubbock255,8856,6562.60820.0320

While Texas is legally a state, counties and cities do not uniformly abide by State department or gubernatorial announcements/recommendations for masks, social distance or gathering sizes, nor are implementations coordinated on common dates, so trying to compare cities or counties within the state or to other states is close to impossible. One would expect Texas to have the second most confirmed cases (behind California) by virtue of sheer number of people. In addition, there are likely distortions in the population and in the cases if college students are not physically on or near campus for cities like Austin and Lubbock.

Comparing Sweden

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EntityPopulationCasesDeaths
Sweden10,343,40384,9855,835
Norway 5,432,58011,120264
Denmark 5,824,85717,974627
Finland 5,528,737 8,225336
Michigan 9,986,857115,2426,791
Georgia (US state)10,617,423277,2885,868
North Carolina10,488,084172,2012,803

Cases and deaths from JHU.edu – 2020-09-04 6:28 AM.

Clearly, normalizing the cases and deaths of neighboring countries by doubling them to compensate for the population differences still leaves Sweden in far worse shape. Of considerable concern should be the fairly high death rate for Sweden compared to even devastated US states.

Sweden and COVID-19

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There have been massive changes to Swedish confirmed cases and deaths going back to May. The current charts look like

The previous charts looked like

So, yes, if the data is to believed the rates of daily deaths and daily confirmed cases have slowed. It has been acknowledged that Sweden has testing capacity limits and that Sweden does not report as promptly as some (well, most) countries. There have also been objections that Sweden is not really homogeneous – specifically, that the percentages of cases and deaths in the Stockholm metropolitan area are much higher than the rest of country.

Maintaining First Place in the North American Confirmed Cases COVID Cup standings

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The Johns Hopkins University COVID website, commonly known as “the map”, now reports that California still has more confirmed COVID-19 cases than any other US state, commonwealth or territory. Per JHU, at 11:30 AM Pacific California has 708,769 confirmed cases and 12,961 deaths. The United States, despite dreadful data handling, continues to have by far the most confirmed cases on Planet Earth: 6,014,013. The US is followed at a considerable distance by

  • Brazil 3,862,311
    India 3,621,245
    Russia 992,402
    Peru 647,166
  • South Africa 625,056
    Colombia 607,904
    Mexico 595,841

Among US states

  • Texas 629,875 cases 12,684 deaths
  • Florida 623,471 cases 11,187 deaths
  • New York 434,756 cases 32,957 deaths
  • Georgia 270,471 cases 5,632 deaths
  • Illinois 236,724 cases 8,235 deaths
  • Arizona 201,661 cases 5030 deaths

[in order by confirmed cases]

New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Alabama, Ohio, Virginia, South Carolina, Michigan and Maryland all have more than 100,000 confirmed cases