to rhyme with ‘keys’ as pronounced by Arlo Guthrie and many others.
On March 16 San Francisco Bay Area counties mandated that all residents stay at home, but Los Angeles officials said it didn’t make sense because far fewer cases of the coronavirus had been detected there. L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer: “We don’t have the same trajectory that they have up north.”
Ten weeks Los Angeles now has the highest rate of deaths from COVID-19 in California, and the second highest infection rate. Granted, the slower start did not help. But Los Angeles has high-density neighborhoods (this virus loves overcrowding), as well as high rates of poverty, homelessness and smog.
County Population Cases Deaths
Los Angeles 10,098,052 44,121 2,042
San Diego 3,302,833 6,559 222
Orange 3,164,182 5,336 88
Riverside 2,282,296 6,464 270
San Bernardino 2,135,483 4,315 157
Santa Clara 1,922,200 2,571 139
Alameda 1,643,700 2,847 92
Sacramento 1,510,023 1,289 56
Contra Costa 1,133,247 1,321 33
Fresno 978,130 1,448 17
Kern 883,053 1,824 25
San Francisco 870,044 2,367 40
It appears that Los Angeles’ population is NOT older than the rest of the state – it might even be slightly younger. Los Angeles residents were NOT more likely to have diabetes, high blood pressure or obesity compared with the rest of the state. It is tough from a model’s perspective to argue that 6 days of delay in locking down (= 1.5 virus generations) made a big difference. Stay tuned.