A state government budget for California might be $225 BILLION in ordinary times. But these are not ordinary times. For a variety of reasons – excuses would be a more precise word – it MAY be the case that the state will collect one third less revenue (so about $75 billion) than expected. That means expenses will have to be cut by about that amount. It is certainly possible that revenues will surge, that rainy day funds or surpluses will be found and that some ambitious projects will be deferred. Of interest is then whether state funding of K-12 education will be reduced. And, if so, by how much. California’s total state population is estimated per the California State Department of Finance to be 39,109,070 as of July 1, 2023. That would mean about one in eight Americans. California has 58 counties which range in population size from Los Angeles (9,825,708) to Alpine (1,165). The legal entity that is given revenues and incurs costs for K-12 education is a school district which may have one or more schools. California has 2,012 school districts which include 10,196 public and charter schools and which serve 5,803,271 students and employ 266,296 teachers and staff. Those four numbers change almost daily so shifts of one or two percent up or down are not alarming. State-wide, school districts collect over $15 BILLION in revenue from Federal sources, over $40 BILLION in revenue from local sources (usually counties) and almost $60 BILLION in revenue from state sources. At issue is what happens if the state revenue is reduced. Of particular concern are school districts where the majority of revenue is from the state. In the past, a school district whose expenses grossly exceeded its revenues would be taken over by the state. This meant: /1/ a loan would be arranged /2/ the superintendent would be fired /3/ the elected board of education would be relieved of its powers /4/ the state would appoint a new superintendent with just about complete authority to close or consolidate schools, reduce busing, eliminate programs like art, music and sports, fire teachers and so on. For example, the State of California took over Oakland Unified School District TWENTY YEARS ago. Enrollment has declined, academic achievement is not worth measuring, the district still owes money on its original $100,000,000 loan …
If there were dramatic cuts in state revenues hundreds of school districts would be in dire financial straits. The key cells for each district are in the columns to the far right: “Loan” is how much the district MIGHT have to borrow to make up for the decline in state revenues and the percentage is the share this is of the new budget. High percentages, meaning bigger than 10 or 20%, are signals of danger.
It is very unclear /1/ where several hundred first-rate superintendents could be found /2/ whether any banks would loan money /3/ what would happen next year
https://www.silverwolfwushu.com/California_budget_01.html has revenues by school district within a county. There is a downloadable spreadsheet (.xls file) for each county as well as a summary spreadsheet with one row for each county. For hardy souls there is also a combined spreadsheet with 2011 rows – one for each district.
I will adjust the impacts as soon as more information is known about how much money the state will be able to pay this year.