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With a nod to Dobie Gray’s (born Lawrence Darrow Brown; July 26, 1940 – December 6, 2011) 1973 hit song (written by Mentor Williams)

MH370DriftModels

It is unfortunate that Malaysian military radar traces were not made available a lot sooner. As it is, some thought has to be given to why the debris that drifted for 17 months was not noticed during the aerial searches. One conjecture is that, based on the location of the barnacles, the piece was mostly below the surface. A second consideration is some other 777 could have lost such an assembly. Hard not to imagine panic-stricken passengers noticing a piece of wing missing. And it is difficult seeing how pilots would have failed to observe how poorly the plane turned. We shall see what the French and other forensic analysts come up with. From the damage, it looks like the trailing edge hit the water. Not clear if that means the plane was in a climb. The graphic above tries to fold in storms, season and the currents. The problem is, while some debris could have gotten to Reunion or gone by to Madagascar, the graphic shows that there is a very good chance some debris might wash up on southwestern Australia.

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